Weekly Market Commentary - Oct 3, 2025

Crypto markets pushed higher this week with #BTC at $120.3K and #ETH at $4.48K. U.S. jobs data was delayed by the government shutdown, but CME futures still point to Fed rate cuts at the final two meetings of 2025. ETF flows stayed strong—$2.25B into BTC and $1.06B into ETH—while headlines ranged from CME’s 24/7 spot trading plans to major treasury buys, including $615M BTC from Metaplanet and 200K+ ETH from BitMine.

Major stories:

Cryptocurrency markets traded higher this week, with BTC/USD currently at 120,300 and ETH/USD at $4,480. The U.S. nonfarm payrolls release for September will be delayed due to the government shutdown. ADP reported a decrease of 32,000 jobs during the month, the largest decline since March 2023. The Fed is expected to cut rates at its final two meetings of 2025 according to futures markets on CME.

Trading Update:

Funding rates on perpetual swaps are currently at 10% annualized. The annualized BTC futures basis has risen to 7% on OKX, 8% on Binance and CME. The ETH futures basis is at 7% on OKX, 8% on Binance and 9% on CME. On Deribit, 3-month options implied volatility is trading at 40% for BTC and 62% for ETH. Through Thursday, BTC ETFs had net inflows of $2.25B and ETH ETFs had net inflows of $1.06B.

Other News:

Perpetual trading volume on Aster has passed Hyperliquid become the top ranked DEX, driven by 300x leverage. CME plans to begin 24/7 spot crypto trading in early 2026 pending regulatory approval. Gate released a token launchpad Gate Fun on its Gate Layer network. AVAX treasury firm AVAT plans to go public in a $675M SPAC deal. SUI will launch two native stablecoins backed by Ethena and Blackrock's BUIDL. Circle will expand their tokenized treasury fund to Solana. Bullish launched U.S. spot trading and plans to launch option trading. Nasdaq listed VSA announced plans to start a SOL treasury strategy, aiming to acquire $500M in SOL. Metaplanet bought 5,288 BTC for $615M, Strategy purchased 196 BTC for $22M, and BitMine added over 200k ETH last week.

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ML TECH CAPITAL, LLC IS A MEMBER OF NFA AND IS SUBJECT TO NFA'S REGULATORY OVERSIGHT AND EXAMINATIONS. HOWEVER, YOU SHOULD BE AWARE THAT NFA DOES NOT HAVE REGULATORY OVERSIGHT AUTHORITY OVER UNDERLYING OR SPOT VIRTUAL CURRENCY PRODUCTS OR TRANSACTIONS OR VIRTUAL CURRENCY EXCHANGES, CUSTODIANS OR MARKETS.
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